2014 Do Not Draft list
By Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
The presumed definition of a Do Not Draft list means, well, do not draft these players, but let’s get this out of the way up front: I don’t really mean that. What I mean is that when one secures players through a draft or an auction, the main goal should be about value and finding bargains who will overachieve based on the cost to acquire them, then constructing the puzzle that makes for a successful squad. There are MVPs and Cy Young winners and other studs below, and perhaps that is precisely what mistakenly augments their value in the first place. I’m looking for deals in several senses of the word, and ultimately these players aren’t likely to end up on my teams unless they slip in drafts or come cheaper in auctions. That’s what I mean!
It’s nothing personal, really. For example, former New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera finished an awesome career a few months ago, but I rarely, if ever, enjoyed his statistics on a fantasy team. The commitment to get a closer early in a draft just isn’t worth the price to me. Of course, Rivera -- and the players listed below -- won’t hurt your fantasy teams, but think about what else you could get in that spot or with that cost. I assume that you don’t want to see names like Matt Joyce or Wade Miley highlighted below, that you want bigger names. Like really relevant names. So here you go, in order of the ESPN Fantasy top 300. Enjoy!
Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: It was certainly more rewarding to select Gomez in the 12th round a year ago than it will be in the second round this season. Am I a believer? Well, after all, he finished in the top 10 overall on the Player Rater last year. I love any combination of power and speed, and really, who wouldn’t, but he swings and misses a lot, hasn’t been the most durable fellow and boasts a career batting average of .255. I’m not saying he'll go all B.J. Upton on us, as if that’s now the new adjective depicting major bust potential in batting average, but I’m more risk-averse in the first three rounds. Someone else can deal with this.
Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners: Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers is different. He’s a fantasy monster every year. I’d take him early in the second round. After him, there are several ace-types whom I view as interchangeable and likely will be drafted in the top 30, but I’m no longer sure King Felix is even one of them. He didn’t finish among the top 10 starting pitchers last year, and despite never sniffing the playoffs, his arm has a million miles on it. He’s won 15 games in a season once in nine years. He’s among my top 10 starting pitchers, but it’s so deep there that it devalues the top guys after Kershaw a bit. If Felix is there in the fifth round, sure. He won’t be.
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: Catchers are poor investments in a fantasy sense because of all the hitters, they miss the most time with injuries and have their statistical output most affected by maladies we might never even find out about. Posey is going cheaper in drafts this year than in 2013, when he was a second-rounder, but still, he missed the top 150 on our Player Rater and was only the fifth-best catcher. Position scarcity does not exist, so don’t grab a catcher early, even the one you think will be best. I won’t be selecting Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana or other backstops in the top 100, either. In ESPN standard formats, there’s nothing wrong with Wilson Ramos or Jason Castro in the last round. Posey made my list last year, and because that advice was correct, there’s no reason to alter this strategy.
Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves: I admit he’s fun to own in my longtime keeper league, and unlike Posey, he was worth it on the Player Rater (finishing 14th overall), but many saves can be had 10 rounds later, and one can still compete in strikeouts without him. Trust me, you need offense, not saves, in the fifth round. I’ll also let others gobble up Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Greg Holland unless it’s a points league, which is altogether different.
Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: We know what he’s capable of statistically, but without his health, forget about it. In fact, let’s just put the entire Dodgers outfield in this space. Yasiel Puig has monster upside, but he shouldn’t be viewed as a legit base stealer or safe in any sense. For him to go in the third round, he’d need to hit close to .300 with 20 homers and 20 steals, and despite his amazing rookie campaign -- well, the start of it -- that’s optimistic. Kemp isn’t going 20-20, either. Way too much risk there in the top 100. And I’ll just simply pass on Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier unless it’s Round 20 or so.
Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds: Perhaps he’ll figure out how to get on base and then he’ll steal 100, but you know that although drafting one guy who could literally win you a category would be an awesome story, it’s so unlikely. Struggling at Triple-A isn’t always a harbinger of doom, but pitchers can handle this guy when he’s at the plate. I’m seeing Hamilton go in the first five rounds of drafts. Definitely won’t be me who picks him.
Others who might be just fine but I don’t figure to draft based on rankings/average draft position:
Catchers: Well, most of the top 10 guys, and after that, Evan Gattis. I’m waiting at this spot.
Corner infielders: Ryan Zimmerman, Pedro Alvarez, Matt Adams, Manny Machado, Corey Hart, Nick Swisher, Chris Johnson.
Middle infielders: Robinson Cano, Elvis Andrus, Brandon Phillips, Alexei Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Guerrero.
Outfielders: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Mark Trumbo, Domonic Brown, Curtis Granderson, Dexter Fowler, Marlon Byrd.
Starting pitchers: Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, Hisashi Iwakuma, Matt Moore, Jeff Samardzija, Zack Wheeler, Patrick Corbin, Justin Masterson, Tim Lincecum, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez.
Relief pitchers: After the big four, Koji Uehara, Jonathan Papelbon, Addison Reed, Rafael Soriano, Huston Street, Fernando Rodney, John Axford.
By Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
The presumed definition of a Do Not Draft list means, well, do not draft these players, but let’s get this out of the way up front: I don’t really mean that. What I mean is that when one secures players through a draft or an auction, the main goal should be about value and finding bargains who will overachieve based on the cost to acquire them, then constructing the puzzle that makes for a successful squad. There are MVPs and Cy Young winners and other studs below, and perhaps that is precisely what mistakenly augments their value in the first place. I’m looking for deals in several senses of the word, and ultimately these players aren’t likely to end up on my teams unless they slip in drafts or come cheaper in auctions. That’s what I mean!
It’s nothing personal, really. For example, former New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera finished an awesome career a few months ago, but I rarely, if ever, enjoyed his statistics on a fantasy team. The commitment to get a closer early in a draft just isn’t worth the price to me. Of course, Rivera -- and the players listed below -- won’t hurt your fantasy teams, but think about what else you could get in that spot or with that cost. I assume that you don’t want to see names like Matt Joyce or Wade Miley highlighted below, that you want bigger names. Like really relevant names. So here you go, in order of the ESPN Fantasy top 300. Enjoy!
Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: It was certainly more rewarding to select Gomez in the 12th round a year ago than it will be in the second round this season. Am I a believer? Well, after all, he finished in the top 10 overall on the Player Rater last year. I love any combination of power and speed, and really, who wouldn’t, but he swings and misses a lot, hasn’t been the most durable fellow and boasts a career batting average of .255. I’m not saying he'll go all B.J. Upton on us, as if that’s now the new adjective depicting major bust potential in batting average, but I’m more risk-averse in the first three rounds. Someone else can deal with this.
Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners: Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers is different. He’s a fantasy monster every year. I’d take him early in the second round. After him, there are several ace-types whom I view as interchangeable and likely will be drafted in the top 30, but I’m no longer sure King Felix is even one of them. He didn’t finish among the top 10 starting pitchers last year, and despite never sniffing the playoffs, his arm has a million miles on it. He’s won 15 games in a season once in nine years. He’s among my top 10 starting pitchers, but it’s so deep there that it devalues the top guys after Kershaw a bit. If Felix is there in the fifth round, sure. He won’t be.
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: Catchers are poor investments in a fantasy sense because of all the hitters, they miss the most time with injuries and have their statistical output most affected by maladies we might never even find out about. Posey is going cheaper in drafts this year than in 2013, when he was a second-rounder, but still, he missed the top 150 on our Player Rater and was only the fifth-best catcher. Position scarcity does not exist, so don’t grab a catcher early, even the one you think will be best. I won’t be selecting Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana or other backstops in the top 100, either. In ESPN standard formats, there’s nothing wrong with Wilson Ramos or Jason Castro in the last round. Posey made my list last year, and because that advice was correct, there’s no reason to alter this strategy.
Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves: I admit he’s fun to own in my longtime keeper league, and unlike Posey, he was worth it on the Player Rater (finishing 14th overall), but many saves can be had 10 rounds later, and one can still compete in strikeouts without him. Trust me, you need offense, not saves, in the fifth round. I’ll also let others gobble up Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Greg Holland unless it’s a points league, which is altogether different.
Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: We know what he’s capable of statistically, but without his health, forget about it. In fact, let’s just put the entire Dodgers outfield in this space. Yasiel Puig has monster upside, but he shouldn’t be viewed as a legit base stealer or safe in any sense. For him to go in the third round, he’d need to hit close to .300 with 20 homers and 20 steals, and despite his amazing rookie campaign -- well, the start of it -- that’s optimistic. Kemp isn’t going 20-20, either. Way too much risk there in the top 100. And I’ll just simply pass on Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier unless it’s Round 20 or so.
Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds: Perhaps he’ll figure out how to get on base and then he’ll steal 100, but you know that although drafting one guy who could literally win you a category would be an awesome story, it’s so unlikely. Struggling at Triple-A isn’t always a harbinger of doom, but pitchers can handle this guy when he’s at the plate. I’m seeing Hamilton go in the first five rounds of drafts. Definitely won’t be me who picks him.
Others who might be just fine but I don’t figure to draft based on rankings/average draft position:
Catchers: Well, most of the top 10 guys, and after that, Evan Gattis. I’m waiting at this spot.
Corner infielders: Ryan Zimmerman, Pedro Alvarez, Matt Adams, Manny Machado, Corey Hart, Nick Swisher, Chris Johnson.
Middle infielders: Robinson Cano, Elvis Andrus, Brandon Phillips, Alexei Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Guerrero.
Outfielders: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Mark Trumbo, Domonic Brown, Curtis Granderson, Dexter Fowler, Marlon Byrd.
Starting pitchers: Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, Hisashi Iwakuma, Matt Moore, Jeff Samardzija, Zack Wheeler, Patrick Corbin, Justin Masterson, Tim Lincecum, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez.
Relief pitchers: After the big four, Koji Uehara, Jonathan Papelbon, Addison Reed, Rafael Soriano, Huston Street, Fernando Rodney, John Axford.
